This weekend we have the largest competition we have ever seen for DraftKings MMA. We have a $10 entrance competition with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of the to 1st place. I never thought we'd see a 6-figure 1st place prize for MMA but I was wrong and that I can't wait to chase it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov is going to be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings just made it even bigger for us DFS players. We're down to 12-fights therefore we can observe a number of ties for that 1st place prize, therefore try to be different with your lineups somewhere, or make salary on the table to differ in this way. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this weekend along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the"safest" drama on the card with a fantastic margin at his -900 betting line. I love plugging in those high odds guys in cash so that I can lock a win in there and worry about finding 3 other wins from my 5 additional areas. We generally only want 4 wins in cash games to beat the cash line, so that is what I shoot for in those 50/50 or double up games. Luque has been quite remarkable in his UFC run and he's beat some pretty big names. On paper, this is only one of his simplest matches yet. He also has large time upside with his completing potential. He has an ITD line of -270, therefore I believe we could have 100+ points within this triumph. He's a fantastic play in all formats, but he will be chalky in championships, so that's why he is my cash play of this week instead.
GPP play of this week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are always good to aim in GPPs since it only takes 1 shot with a lot of these men. I believe this is a good matchup for Volkov and he is only priced at $8.7k weekly. If he can get a 1st round KO at that price, he will likely be on the winning LU. Same goes for Lewis, so he is a good GPP drama too. However, my choice to win will be Volkov and that I enjoy his cost. I think a few guys priced above him this week will be much higher owned, therefore we could get a heavyweight favorite at lesser possession here. Fight Doesn't Go To Conclusion is currently lined at -190, so this is a fantastic GPP fight to aim over all. If you like the Dark Beast to get the W, then he's a good fighter to throw in your GPP LUs.
Underdog play of this week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
This is the best odds value on the card. Presently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. But on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 greater than Martin. I enjoy looking for line value like that which alone puts Martin in drama in most formats. Martin also has the better odds to end this battle ITD, so that is another and with him. I like the flooring for Martin in cash games also because Laflare is not very likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we can afford a loss from Martin and just take the points he could rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of the week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could definitely get the win here. However, he is going to have to get a finish to pay off his $8.6k price . Sergio won't be heading for any takedowns in this fight, and he does not strike a high enough speed for him to find 10x of the $8.6k. Sergio will be the better fighter on the feet, but if he does not get an end he then probably only scores 60-70 points in a win. Those low scores do not cut it in $8.6k. There are only better plays points each dollar and those are the guys I'll be targeting. Sergio is a solid fade if you're earning 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You'd like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you'll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
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